The Arab Spring: Success or Failure?

Abstract

Nearly four years have passed since the world witnessed a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region called the ‘Arab Spring’. Few significant questions that are often asked include the followings: Was the Arab Spring a success or a failure? Why did it happen? And why is it important that it happened? I will argue that the Arab Spring has contributed to a few positive and to several negative outcomes in the short run, due to the strong coercive apparatuses of the countries involved and to their weak institutions, in addition to international factors. In addition, I will also argue that from a long-term perspective, the Arab Spring might eventually be credited with bringing democracy to the region like the French Revolution did in 1789. The unrest first began in Tunisia in December 2010, when the self immolation of a local vendor sparked countrywide protests that soon spread to neighboring countries such as Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and at a later stage to Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iran, Iraq and to some extent Sudan. Focusing on the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, my thesis claims that the Arab Spring has in the short term resulted in more negative than positive aspects. The Arab Spring can be considered successful in terms of ending unaccountable governments and dictatorships such as those of Ben Ali in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt and Gaddafi in Libya; in enhancing the political participation of parties that were not prominent in former regimes; and in promoting freedom of expression in the Arab World. However, the Arab Spring has also led to divisions on the basis of religion and along sectarian lines (especially Sunni and Shiite), in armed conflict and in the civil wars in Libya and Syria. It has also brought about militias, regional political instability (with political killings) and economic fragility (with a decline in economic growth for the whole MENA region). I conclude that in the same way as France and Western Europe took several centuries to become democratic and to move from dictatorship to democracy, the MENA region eventually has the potential to become democratic in the long run.