| dc.description.abstract | In the context of global preparedness and response strategies for Mpox outbreaks, we develop a
comprehensive mathematical model to investigate its transmission dynamics, integrating critical
factors such as vaccination coverage and environmental contamination. The model is analytically
examined to ensure well-posedness, including the positivity of solutions and the existence of a
biologically invariant region. Stability analysis reveals that the disease-free equilibrium is both locally
and globally stable when the basic reproduction number RMPX < 1, while a unique endemic
equilibrium exists when RMPX > 1. Parameter values are estimated using the least squares method,
utilizing U.S. outbreak data from May 10 to December 31, 2022 to capture the most intense phase of
Mpox transmission and burden. The model is validated by comparing simulations against reported
daily, cumulative, and death cases, and residuals are analyzed to assess model accuracy. A global
sensitivity analysis, supported by contour and surface plots, identifies critical parameters affecting
disease transmission. Bifurcation analysis reveals complex system behavior near threshold conditions.
Furthermore, we formulate and analyze an optimal control problem incorporating vaccination and
sanitation efforts to evaluate intervention effectiveness. The findings underscore that a combined
approach is essential for optimal disease mitigation− vaccination provides direct individual protection,
while sanitation curtails environmental sources of reinfection. Additionally, we employ CTMC and SDE
frameworks to capture stochastic effects, offering a more realistic understanding of outbreak dynamics
beyond deterministic predictions. | en_US |
