HIV/AIDS suppression in North America: Intervention plans and cost-effectiveness of UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets

Abstract

This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS

90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. Deterministic mod- els assume fixed parameters and predictable outcomes, while stochastic models incorporate ran- dom variability to reflect real-world uncertainty. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic mod- els, focusing on their utility in optimizing public health interventions such as testing programs,

awareness campaigns, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery systems. Stochastic models ac- count for real-world unpredictability, offering more realistic insights compared to deterministic

approaches. The 95-95-95 targets aim for 95 % of people living with HIV to know their status, 95 % of those diagnosed to receive ART, and 95 % of those on ART to achieve viral suppression. These benchmarks are critical for reducing transmission and improving health outcomes. This analysis establishes the basic reproduction number (R0

) to guide interventions and examines the stabil- ity of disease-free and endemic equilibria, providing a foundation for applying optimal control

strategies to minimize HIV prevalence effectively and cost-efficiently. Moreover, the data for this study was sourced from the official UNAIDS website, focusing on North America. An innovative feature of this study is the application of the Stochastic method, which enhances model accuracy

and operational efficiency in simulating HIV transmission under various interventions. This re- search offers actionable insights for policymakers and contributes to global efforts to achieve the

95-95-95 targets by 2030, advancing the fight against HIV/AIDS.