Effectiveness of bed nets and media awareness in dengue control: A fuzzy analysis

Abstract

The incorporation of fuzzy analysis in the mathematical modeling of disease outbreaks has brought a paradigm shift in epidemiological research, offering a sophisticated approach to understanding and addressing the complexities inherent in disease dynamics. Unlike traditional mathematical models, which often rely on deterministic assumptions and precise parameter values, fuzzy analysis provides a flexible framework capable of accommodating uncertainty

and imprecision within epidemiological systems. This paper presents a novel SVEIR-SEI com- partmental model for dengue disease where five key parameters such as transmission rate,

mortality rate, recovery rate, biting rate, and vaccination rate are treated as fuzzy numbers. Among these, transmission rate, mortality rate, and recovery rate are defined as a function of virus load whereas biting rate and vaccinations rate are defined as a function of number of bed net users and media awareness regarding vaccination, respectively. Crisp reproduction number is determined using next generation matrix method and hence fuzzy reproduction number is derived as a triangular fuzzy number (TFN). Numerical results show that biting rate and vaccination rate are the two most sensitive parameters to crisp reproduction number. We also examine the impact of using bed nets and media awareness regarding vaccination on the model system under fuzzy environment. It is found that using bed nets is a more effective strategy for dengue control than media coverage regarding vaccination.